Crude Confirming Cycle High
Drop into May 2017 Likely…
Sept./Oct. ’17 = KEY Cycle!
03/11/17 Weekly Re-Lay:
“Crude Oil, Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil are now more in sync after Crude broke near-term support and plummeted – removing any remaining upside potential (based on the weekly trend pattern) and proving related analysis wrong.
Since mid-Nov., the cyclic outlook had been for the Energy Complex to move higher into year-end and then set a final peak on Feb. 20–24th – before entering a bearish cycle & a new decline that could last into early-May 2017.
A high on Feb. 20–24th would complete/perpetuate a ~28-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression, a ~14-week low-low-(high) Cycle Progression & a more recent ~7-week low-high-(high) Cycle Progression.
The 1–2 year cycle outlook concurred with that 3–6 month outlook – pinpointing Feb. 20–24th as the ideal time for a weekly high. After Crude pulled back into early-Feb. and then reversed higher, its weekly trend pattern was arguing for a retest of the early-Jan. highs before that next wave down would take hold.
When Crude rallied into Feb. 21st, it could not fulfill the weekly trend pattern (and synergy of weekly LHRs) and failed to retest its January peak. That left the daily & weekly trends in conflict, with the daily trend projecting a retest of its Feb. low while the weekly trend still argued for a retest of the Jan. high.
The retest of the low was set up to occur first, but that retest triggered acceleration lower and allowed the weekly trend to finally turn down – joining Unleaded Gas & Heating Oil in weekly downtrends and removing the chance for a retest of the high before a larger-scale drop unfolded…
In doing so, Crude did reinforce the 1–2 year & 3–6 month cyclic outlook for a decline from late-Feb. into early-May. (On a continuous-contract basis, Crude set its highest weekly close on Feb. 20–24th, while retesting its Jan. continuous peak – corroborating these cycles.)
Now that it has finally turned its weekly trend down, Crude has strengthened the case for additional downside into the first half of May 2017, even though some consolidation is likely to take hold in late-March/early-April.
Sept./Oct. 2017 is the next (ensuing) important cycle low, based on monthly cycles.” [See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for latest updates.]
Crude dropping sharply after Feb. 20–24th cycle peak. Overall decline into May 2017 expected.. Watch Sept./Oct. 2017 as CRITICAL cycle in oil markets as well as Middle East!