Crude & Russia Connection

Crude & Russia Connection;
Crude Nearing Cycle Peak…
New Downtrend Should Follow.

 

02/15/17 Weekly Re-Lay 

 

“Throughout 2014 & 2015, I discussed long-term cyclic analysis dealing with Russia and her interaction with Europe and the US.  In that discussion, I elaborated on a very consistent and very precise 40-Year Cycle that reaches fruition in 2016/2017 and was expected to trigger a resurgence of Russia flexing her might & influence while confronting the West.

That was combined with a 70-Year Cycle – from the Truman Doctrine in 1947 – and a 100-Year Cycle, from the Russian Revolution of 1917, to pinpoint 2017 as a time when Russian influence and antagonism – towards America & the West – would escalate exponentially.

That expected emergence of the Russian Bear could lead to a stock bear in 2017.

The following includes the high points of that analysis:

 

A Parallel 40-Year Cycle

Tsars, Soviets & Socialists 

09-29-14 – While I do plan on returning to the more detailed elaboration of America’s 40-Year Cycle…I want to take a tangent this month and discuss a similar 40-Year Cycle that also comes to fruition in 2016–2017.  This one has been even more precise, with almost every phase pinpointing the ‘6’ or ‘7’ year as the focal point.

The interesting thing is how closely this 40-Year Cycle of Russian Politics & Influence has paralleled the events in America – going from an important supporter & ally during the Revolutionary War to a repeated antagonist in the past century.

Of course, it should also be noted how the 70-Year Cycle dovetails with the latest phase of the 40-Year Cycle, since 2015–2019 is 70 years from when Russia/USSR went from being one of the ’Allies’ in World War II to being the focus of America’s fears &

distrust during the Cold War.  That can be traced to the Truman Doctrine issued in 1947… pinpointing 2017 as a complete 70-Year Cycle.

The following is just the ‘skeleton’ of this uncanny 40-Year Cycle in Russia’s recent history – focusing on her global stature and resulting political shifts…

When you step back and view the overall progression, it is intriguing how this cycle has timed Russia’s evolution – starting with their ‘Golden Age’ and support of the American Colonies in the 1770’s (for dual purposes – as a perceived trade partner and as an antagonist against Britain, who had previously slighted Russia) to their fall/plummet from grace in the 1850’s (at the hands of France & others) to the rise of the Soviet Bear in the 1930’s – each transition occurring over an ~80-year period.

The 2010’s are next and 2016/2017 is the focal point for this 40-Year & 80-Year Cycle in Russia (and a 100-Year Cycle from the Russian Revolution in 1917)…   It is also intriguing how Crimea was Russia’s stumbling block in 1856… and just came back to spur a new conflict – with the real focus being the Black Sea & Mediterranean (Black Sea fleet at port of Sevastopol).  The 2014 conflict in Crimea occurred exactly 60 years from when Kruschev transferred it to Ukraine in 1954.

1776 (1775–1781) – Part of Russia’s ‘Golden Age’; Catherine the Great’s tacit support of – and trade with – American colonists, partially spurred by her disdain for Britain after their actions in the Seven Years War; refusal of Britain’s pleas for help (after pretending to support Britain); established relations with America in 1776.

1816 – Culmination/aftermath of Napoleonic Wars (Waterloo in 1815) in which France’s defeat was largely attributed to their failed invasion of Russia in 1812;  Russia took on an important role in Europe’s politics from 1816 on, including their rule of Kingdom of Poland.

1856 – Culmination of Crimean War (1853–1856); coronation of Alexander II after death of Nicholas I in 1855; Treaty of Paris – humiliating defeat for Russia; made Black Sea neutral territory (no more Russian warships – which had previously been an intimidating presence).

1896 – Coronation of final Tsar/Russian emperor (Nicholas II); lasted half of that 40-Year Cycle.

1936 – Constitution of the Soviet Union…

1977 – Soviet Constitution – 3rd & last Soviet Constitution.

2016–2017 – Russia’s next major ‘shift’?

There was also a strong financial component to that, linked to Gold & Silver cycles bottoming in late-2015 and Crude & Russian Ruble cycles bottoming in Jan. 2016.

My conclusion was that they went hand-in-hand (along with the Canadian Dollar, which is why one facet of the analysis was titled Cru-Ca-Ble – for Crude, Canadian Dollar & Ruble) and that a bottom in oil prices would fit perfectly with cycles projecting the rise of the Russian Bear in 2016/2017.

Russia was projected to begin flexing her might in 2016 and intensifying that into 2017.  That also coincided with the onset of – and ultimate transition from – Vladimir Putin’s 17-Year Cycle.  2016 was the 17th year since his ascension to power on Dec. 31, 1999 and a new (higher-level) 17-Year Cycle was due to begin on Dec. 31, 2016.

Judging by the 2016 Election and multiple DNC hacks, the demise of Michael Flynn’s NSA position, the sudden obvious & blatant emergence of a Russian spy ship – first off the coast of Delaware and now off the Connecticut coast – and the alleged violation of the 1987 INF treaty (a precise geometric 30-Year Cycle) while deploying new missiles…

I think it is safe to say that Russia is flexing her might again!

There are some other, equally-significant aspects of that analysis that warrant close attention.  Two of those are expected to play an increasing role in Russia’s rising influence in the coming years:

1 – Russia has been the largest global gold buyer since mid-2014.  While they are still well below the top 4 or 5 holders of gold, they continue to increase their reserves.  This accumulation is reported to have escalated through much of 2016.

2 – One of the primary funding mechanisms – for those gold purchases – has been their selling of US Treasuries.

3 – Although #1 & #2 are the already-established facts & figures, #3 is the likely target (or at least a primary target) for all of these moves – the ultimate unseating of the US Dollar as global reserve currency.

Russia’s additional moves in 2013–2016, including their role in the BRICS New Development BankAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank (headed by China) & the Eurasian Economic Union, are also positioning for an all-out battle against the US Dollar as sole global-reserve currency.

Just as any astute strategist would do, Russia (and China) is making sure to have all her ‘ducks in a row’ before making any major moves.  Now, she is trying to ‘feel out’ her adversary before her next move.

However, Russia has entered a narrow window of time – coinciding with the onset of a new American administration – in which to try and really ramp things up, taking them to the next level.

Russia – as well as Iran, North Korea, et al – are going to great lengths to test the resolve of the new administration… and to see what kind of reaction can be spurred.  That ushers in a very precarious period.

All of that is occurring during the latest phase of the 8-Year Cycle of Attacks Against America – in 2017.  And, it is occurring as we near the March/April 2017 time frame – when related attacks have a higher cyclic probability of occurring.

[It should be kept in mind that these ‘attacks’ have more recently evolved to cyber-attacks as well as physical attacks, so anything is possible.  And, just because Russia is the one grabbing the headlines now does NOT automatically assume that Russia would be the one fulfilling that uncanny 8-Year Cycle.  It does not eliminate her from that possibility, either.]

More on that topic in…

 

Crude OilUnleaded Gas & Heating Oil – from a cyclic perspective – are in no-man’s-land, midway between 3–6 month highs & lows as they near multiple weekly cycles that converge on Feb. 20–24th.

When the mid-Nov. lows reinforced related cycles, it projected a strong advance – that could stretch into (and invert) the next phase of the 14-week & 28-week low-low cycles.  They did experience strong rallies and then pulled back – neutralizing but not turning down their weekly uptrends.

That reinforced the potential for new highs but they have struggled to fulfill that potential, now approaching those cycles as they remain mid-range.”  [See Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track for latest updates.]

 

Crude completing projected ~3-month uptrend; poised for Feb. 20–24th reversal lower.  On a longer-term basis, the oil markets continue to build a projected 1–2 year base, following the precise fulfillment of its 17-Year & 7-Year Cycles – that bottomed in Dec. 2015/Jan. 2016.  Watch Sept./Oct. 2017 as CRITICAL cycle in oil markets as well as Middle East!